Its hard to get where you want to go if you dont know where youre starting. If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too. Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. The exercise continues this offseason. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 Here's FanGraphs preseason projections in 2018: https://fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta= Notice that are 18 teams <25%. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. It wouldnt be surprising to see the mean absolute error for an exercise like this, I want to use the simplest tool that gets the point across creep up over time. The exercise continues this offseason. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. The Rays are another possible answer, though. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. The exercise continues this offseason. The Phillies certainly need a starting pitcher, and ZiPS is less than enthralled with the situation at second base and definitely isnt on Team Brandon Marsh. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. Lets look. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio . Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Still, the Guardians entire Opening Day lineup and starting rotation is under 30, and there are a handful of top prospects close to graduating from their farm system. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. The Reds made it very clear that they were looking to slash payroll this offseason, bending over backwards to frame their roster deconstruction as the beginning of a realignment, not a rebuild. Read the rest of this entry . ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Thats an incredible run of success, and theyre not letting up anytime soon. And two, because fans absolutely lose their minds at these things. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. Oops. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. It's our predicted best guess on the early college basketball rankings after Week 11. Read the rest of this entry . You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. Something went wrong. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. by Handedness, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons, A Conversation With Philadelphia Phillies Southpaw Bailey Falter (Who Is Unique), The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Last year, when PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection model, predicted the Braves would only win 82 games, all of Braves Twitter lost its collective mind. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. Starts at 6:30 pm. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. A daily roundup of Atlanta Braves news from Battery Power, By submitting your email, you agree to our, FanGraphs and PECOTA projected standings for the 2022 season are here, Adam Duvall headed to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Its a big bet on their player development group, which could pay dividends in a couple of years. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. Some may think. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Can the Braves win the World Series again? Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. So we project probabilities, not certainties. The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. As you might logically suspect, ZiPS systematically underestimates teams that add value during the season and overrates teams that subtract value. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. by Handedness, The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, The Angels Believe In the Youth in Their Outfield. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. Location: Karta. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. So how does it work? That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. Shane Bazs elbow injury is concerning, but Yonny Chirinos should be making a return from his own elbow injury and Corey Kluber was signed to give them a little more stability in their rotation. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. 25. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. The exercise continues this offseason. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. by Retrosheet. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week's rankings. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox's chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. I feel 81 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation for them. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Read the rest of this entry . Approximately minutes of joyous analysis.